In match play the same position can be a clear double at one score and a clear error at another. Match equity is the framework that explains why, and it is the single largest difference between money play and tournament play.
Your match equity is the probability you win the whole match from a given score. It is not the probability you win the current game. Every cube decision in a match is really a comparison between the match equity you hold now and the match equities of the possible outcomes.
In money play every point is worth exactly one point. In a match to seven, going from six points to seven wins the match, while going from two to three barely moves your chances. Points have different values at different scores, so the cube arithmetic changes with them.
When one player reaches one point from victory, the Crawford rule makes the next game cubeless. Without it, the trailing player would double immediately every game with nothing to lose, which would distort the whole endgame of a match. Crawford is a patch on an exploit that match equity makes obvious.
At some scores a gammon wins the match outright and at others it is worth nothing beyond a single point. That changes whether you should play for a gammon or take the safe win, and it is why strong match players sometimes make moves that look wrong in isolation.
Most match equities come from rollouts and vary between published tables, but a few scores are settled by arithmetic alone. At double match point, where both players are one point from winning, the cube is meaningless and gammons are worth nothing: whoever wins the game wins the match, so your match equity is simply your chance of winning the game. At two-away, two-away, any double puts the whole match on the line for the same reason, which is why that double is close to automatic and why the gammon stops mattering the moment it is accepted. Knowing the handful of scores where the answer is exact is more useful than half-remembering a table.
After the Crawford game the cube comes back, and the player who is behind has nothing to protect: losing by two points and losing by one are the same result. So the trailer doubles at the first opportunity in every game, because the downside is already spent. The leader's only counter is the free drop, available at certain odd away-scores, where passing an immediate double costs a point that does not change their position. These are not subtleties invented by theorists. They fall directly out of noticing that points past the finish line are worth nothing.
Play the position, not the score.
This is exactly backwards in match play. The score is part of the position. A double that is correct at 2-2 in a match to seven can be a blunder at 5-2, and playing every position the same way regardless of score is one of the most reliable ways to lose matches while playing good checkers.
Play a rated game and every decision gets reviewed afterwards against the best move available. The dice are committed before you roll and checkable after, so the number you end up with is a measure of you, not of luck.
Play a rated game freeThe probability of winning the entire match from a given score. Cube decisions in match play compare your current match equity against the equities of possible outcomes rather than simple point values.
Because points have different values at different scores. A point that wins the match is worth far more than a point that takes you from two to three, so the same position can be a correct double at one score and an error at another.
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